Europe’s leaders meet in Russia’s shadow

CHIȘINĂU — Gathering more than 40 European leaders in Moldova on Thursday will be a symbolic thumb in Vladimir Putin’s eye — a sign of collective commitment to join hands against Moscow.

It’s also a major risk. 

Literally and metaphorically, the so-called European Political Community’s second summit is taking place in Russia’s backyard, a region Putin sees as part of Moscow’s sphere of influence. That makes getting several dozen world leaders in and out no easy task.  

Moldova has closed its airspace for the duration of the summit and NATO surveillance planes will keep a watchful eye — a nod to the constant threat of Russian incursions. Access to the main airport has been restricted — a recognition of the myriad fake bomb alerts there since the start of the war. And most leaders won’t stay overnight — preferring to keep their visit to a minimum.

The measures illustrate Europe’s daunting task as it tries to embrace a wider community of countries. The outreach inevitably involves wading directly into a sea of Russian menace — and overtures. 

Moldova, an ex-Soviet country of 2.6 million sandwiched between the EU and Ukraine, is a prime example. 

The country has been trying to chart a path toward EU membership under pro-Western President Maia Sandu. But it is also battling multiple Russian threats — not only in the breakaway Transnistria region but also through a constant barrage of assaults on its democracy, energy supply and communications. Sandu even said Moldova had recently foiled a Russian-backed coup attempt.

That makes the summit location “a signal that Moldova matters,” Moldovan Foreign Minister told POLITICO ahead of the summit. It shows “that the whole Continent stands by Moldova and Ukraine in this difficult time in European history,” he added. 

Risk vs. Reward

Thursday’s one-day summit is the largest international event ever hosted by Moldova, which declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

According to Anastasia Pociumban, a researcher for the German Council on Foreign Relations, the summit represents an “unprecedented” undertaking for the country. 

“It’s a challenge but it’s also a big opportunity to showcase Moldova. It’s a big stretch for the administration because the government is dealing with so many issues and crises at the same time,” Pociumban said. 

Moldova has gone beyond the usual security measures for the event — in part because of the country’s precarious geographical location, perched on the edge of the Black Sea, bordering Ukraine and with Russian soldiers stationed just 50 kilometers away from the capital. 

In addition to the aviation restrictions, the country is essentially locking in residents near Castle Mimi, a winery strategically chosen to host the summit 35 kilometers outside the capital, Chișinău. Locals have been asked to carry special permits to leave their homes while leaders are around and Moldovans have been given a public holiday.

Journalists are also only permitted to travel to Castle Mimi on two specially chartered trains, leaving at 6 a.m. and 6:30 a.m. from the Chișinău central train station.

“It’s an illustration of what Moldovans have to deal with every day, living under daily pressure from the Russians,” said Anne Genetet, a French lawmaker with the Renaissance party of French President Emmanuel Macron, an early advocate of the EPC. “The difficulties illustrate why it is so important to help them.”

The scale of the summit itself is also smaller than the inaugural European Political Community gathering in Prague last year. That’s partly due to security reasons, and partly the result of resource limitations. Some delegations are being forced to arrive on smaller jets than usual, for instance, because of the airport’s limited capacity (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Wednesday canceled completely).

Behind the scenes, Western capitals and the EU have also been advising Moldova on everything from communication security to anti-corruption measures, according to Popescu and French officials. And France sent several delegations to Moldova to help with preparations, the Elysée said.

Still, many of those involved in the preparations for the summit downplayed the security risks involved in holding the gathering. 

“There is a natural [level] of alert and a security observation, as with any summit, but with a particular attention given the region where [the summit] takes place,” said an Elysée official in a briefing with the press. “We have done what was needed to help the Moldavans to make the summit secure.”

Popescu, too, noted that “hybrid attacks have intensified in the last year and a half” but insisted that Moldova “has been used to withstanding these kinds of pressures for many years.” 

For the summit, he added, “We have been working closely with our partners to secure full-spectrum security for all of the leaders who will be on our soil. We’re very confident the summit will take place in a calm and secure atmosphere.”

Moldova’s trajectory

The logistical difficulties involved in organizing the summit are, in some ways, a metaphor for the struggles Moldova has experienced on its path to possible EU membership. 

After years of inching along the road to EU accession, Moldova was formally granted candidate status alongside Ukraine last June. The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, reaffirmed the country’s aspirations on Wednesday, speaking at the opening of a new EU civilian mission in Chișinău. The EU and Moldova are on the same page, he insisted.

Yet concerns remain about Moldova’s fitness for EU membership — not least its need to reform the judiciary and state institutions and fight corruption, priorities for Sandu since she was elected first as prime minister in 2019 and then as president the following year.

Though Moldova wants accession talks to start by the end of the year, that might be an unrealistic timeline for some countries.

But some believe that Thursday’s summit may change minds. Notably, it will be the first time many of the leaders will have visited Moldova. 

“The summit may be an eye-opener,” said Vadim Pistrinciuc, a former member of the Moldovan parliament and government minister, now with the Institute for Strategic Initiatives (IPIS) “Ultimately the way Moldova — and, of course, Ukraine in particular — resisted the challenges of the past year or more has been revelatory. Many people were very pessimistic when Russia invaded.”

Moldova is hoping that this undeniable goodwill will result in some deliverables from Thursday’s summit — perhaps including more pledges of energy cooperation between the EU and Moldova as the country continues to re-orientate its gas supply away from Russia.

Brussels already moved to sanction the pro-Russian Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor this week — long a request of the Moldovan government. 

But for the bigger question of EU membership, Moldova is unlikely to get the answer it wants on Thursday. That verdict may not come until December, when EU leaders will return to the tricky issue of membership status for Ukraine and Moldova.