What Erdoğan does next?!

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been in power for two decades, solidified his dominance in Turkish politics by winning the recent presidential election. The implications of his victory are now a pressing concern for Turkey and the international community, as they ponder the actions of this strongman leader.

Erdoğan’s influence extends beyond Turkey’s borders due to its strategic importance as a NATO power bridging Europe and the Middle East. However, domestically, he faces daunting challenges as the country grapples with a struggling economy burdened by high inflation.

The presidential election posed a significant threat to Erdoğan’s rule, but he managed to secure victory with 52 percent of the vote, reinforcing his authoritarian ideology. Emre Peker, the director for Europe at the Eurasia Group consultancy, noted that despite the country’s worst economic conditions since the 2001 financial crisis, Erdoğan’s ability to employ identity politics helped him clinch the win.

Critics of the president argue that his victory is a reflection of his control over state resources and his efforts to transform the country into a more authoritarian state. They point to his influence over the media, as well as the imprisonment of opposition leaders and figures from civil society. Opposition groups fear that another five years of Erdoğan’s rule could inflict severe damage on Turkish democracy.

On the other hand, Erdoğan’s supporters argue that the election results highlight the Turkish people’s appreciation for his two decades in power, first as prime minister and then as president. They believe that the country has grown stronger during this period, citing economic growth, improved infrastructure, and a more assertive role in global affairs. They also emphasize that Erdoğan is willing to pursue an independent path, even if it means diverging from the West, despite Turkey’s NATO membership.

Emre Peker observed the extreme polarization between pro- and anti-Erdoğan factions, noting that the president’s reelection demonstrates the consolidation of his support base, which constitutes slightly more than half of the electorate that has influenced Turkish politics for over two decades. He further noted that with each successive election, Erdoğan has taken a more hardline stance on nationalist and conservative issues.

During his victory speech in Ankara, Erdoğan signaled his inclination to maintain his strongman style of leadership in the upcoming five years. He vowed to keep Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtaş, who is currently imprisoned, behind bars, despite calls for his release by the European Court of Human Rights.

However, Erdoğan faces a significant challenge that is partly out of his control—the state of Turkey’s economy. The country has been grappling with soaring inflation, reaching a high of 85 percent last year, and a weakened currency that hit an all-time low against the dollar. The central bank’s reserves have also dwindled ahead of the election.

One crucial issue is whether Turkey will allow the lira to further depreciate now that the election is over, or if market forces will compel such a depreciation. A more critical question is whether Erdoğan will return to conventional economic policies or persist with his current approach of extensive spending and resistance to raising interest rates. Many economists argue that this combination is unsustainable and poses a risk of a post-election crisis, with the lira vulnerable to attacks.

However, Erdoğan remains adamant. In his victory speech, he pledged to keep interest rates low, claiming that it would reduce inflation—a notion rejected by many mainstream economists.

The international community’s primary focus is now on the implications of Erdoğan’s reelection for Turkey’s stance on global affairs. Under his leadership, Turkey has emerged as a significant player and a defiant ally on various critical issues, including Russia’s actions in Ukraine. While Turkey refused to join sanctions against Russia following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it played a crucial role in negotiating a deal to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. As a NATO member, Turkey has supported Finland’s entry into the alliance but has been blocking Sweden’s membership.

Peker from the Eurasia Group predicted that Ankara would maintain robust diplomatic and economic ties with Moscow while remaining a critical but challenging NATO ally. He suggested that Erdoğan would ultimately approve Sweden’s NATO membership if the U.S. permits Turkey to purchase more F-16 jets.

Turkey’s relationship with the European Union is uneasy, not only due to European concerns about Erdoğan undermining the rule of law in Turkey but also due to his threats to release millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey into the EU.

Erdoğan stated confrontationally last month that this election would send a message to the West, emphasizing that Turkey does not heed Western opinions on fighting terrorism or determining economic policies.

Now that the election is over, Erdoğan holds more power than ever before. Turkey’s NATO allies will closely watch whether he fulfills his promises or acts on his threats.