Madrid’s loose-cannon populist is an asset and a worry for Spain’s conservatives

MADRID — Isabel Díaz Ayuso is the Spanish political right’s most powerful electoral weapon. But, even as the president of the Madrid region heads toward another election victory, her divisive brand of libertarian populism is causing problems for her conservative Popular Party (PP).

As elections are held for 12 regional assemblies and in municipalities across Spain on May 28, polls show that Díaz Ayuso will be reelected by a wide margin. The only uncertainty is whether the PP will increase its share of seats enough to give her a full majority in the Madrid regional assembly, a rare feat in Spain’s fragmented politics.

Since taking power in 2019, her popularity and profile have given Díaz Ayuso a national presence that transcends regional politics.

“Ayuso is a phenomenon,” said Lluís Orriols, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University. “Not only is she the president of the Madrid region, but she is also the main point of reference when it comes to confrontation with the central government of Pedro Sánchez. That gives her enormous visibility.”

Díaz Ayuso, 44, came to prominence during the pandemic when, while governing in coalition with the right-of-center Ciudadanos, she took an aggressive stance against COVID-related measures being introduced by Sánchez’s leftist administration.

On the back of those clashes and running under a single-word slogan — “Libertad” (Freedom) — her party more than doubled its seats in the Madrid assembly in a 2021 snap election, allowing it to govern alone, although with the support of the far-right Vox. Two years on, she is aiming to go a step further and secure a majority, under a similarly minimalist campaign catchphrase: “Ganas” (meaning both “desire” and “you win”).

That is despite facing severe criticism from many quarters for her management of the public sector. During the pandemic, Díaz Ayuso was frequently accused of favoring business activity over safety. Health care workers who have been striking over recent months point to the fact that Madrid spends less on its sector per inhabitant than any other region, while also spending less than any other region in mainland Spain on social services in general.

The candidate for mayor of Madrid for the leftist Podemos, Roberto Sotomayor, called her a “health care terrorist.”  

Shrugging off such criticism, she has instead remained firmly engaged in an ideological battle, positioning herself as a defender of values rather than of concrete policies.

At a campaign rally in a square in Madrid’s wealthy Goya neighborhood, the conservative mayor of Lisbon, former European Commissioner Carlos Moedas, praised her.

“You have got rid of something which is the worst thing about the left today: its moral superiority,” he said. “As if they’re better people just because they’re on the left, as if they’re more human. Isabel has looked them in the eyes and said: ‘No, it’s not like that.’”

Moments later, to rapturous applause, Díaz Ayuso took up the same theme. 

“What [the left] don’t understand is that when people are free and prosperous and united despite their differences, they are unbeatable,” she said. 

“They want to stop bullfighting in the city with the greatest bullring in the world, they want to get rid of our freedom to control our own working hours,” she added. “And all they want is to live off the public sector.”

Culture warrior

Díaz Ayuso’s team acknowledges that their candidate has waded into Spain’s culture wars.

“She has taken ownership of the word ‘freedom’ away from the left,” said one person close to her who wanted to remain anonymous because of their position on her staff.

“If you say ‘freedom’ in Madrid, people think of Ayuso … She has waged all the ideological battles possible over the last few years and that explains her success.”

Those battles have included attacking the feminist agenda of the government, as well as casting doubt on climate change.

For the national leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, all of this means that Madrid — arguably Spain’s most important region in electoral terms — will remain in his party’s hands. But it also means that its president threatens to overshadow him.

Núñez Feijóo took command of the PP in April 2022, succeeding Pablo Casado, whose determination to rein in Díaz Ayuso culminated in a public feud. Casado’s efforts to have Díaz Ayuso investigated over allegations of corruption related to a facemask deal for the region involving her brother backfired, leading to his removal.

With Núñez Feijóo lacking the charisma of the Madrid president, he and the party leadership have appeared wrongfooted by some of her more attention-grabbing declarations.

Most recently, this was the case when it emerged that the Basque nationalist party EH Bildu had 44 candidates running in the local elections in the north of the country with convictions linked to the terrorist group Eta, which disbanded in 2018. Seven of the candidates, who had served jail sentences for murder, eventually said they would not take up their posts as councilors if voted in. Straying beyond the local politics of Madrid, Díaz Ayuso echoed the far-right Vox party by calling for EH Bildu to be declared illegal.

“[EH] Bildu are not the heirs of Eta, they are Eta,” she said.

Núñez Feijóo did not endorse the call for EH Bildu to be made illegal and senior party figures said it was unworkable. However, the debate kept Díaz Ayuso firmly in the headlines.  

“Díaz Ayuso feels free to ignore the PP’s classic ideological borders and this means she can compete with Vox, but it also creates a problem for the PP,” said Orriols, of Carlos III University. The stridency of her rhetoric, he said, threatens to drown out the voice of the national leader and drag the party into radical territory.

Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) has even mooted the possibility of another leadership change for the conservatives if these local elections do not go well for Núñez Feijóo outside Madrid.

“If the result [the PP] hopes for does not transpire, then regional leaders like [Andalusia’s Juanma] Moreno Bonilla or Ayuso could be the change that many in the PP demand,” read an internal PSOE memo in January.

Díaz Ayuso’s team rule out the possibility that she could replace Núñez Feijóo as the PP’s candidate in the general election, slated for year’s end, given the lack of time and the fact she does not have a parliamentary seat.

However, few doubt that her moment will come. There are parallels with the career of José María Aznar, who in the 1990s made the leap from regional to national politics and became prime minister.

At the party rally in Madrid, PP supporters waved Spanish flags and clapped along to the dull, bass-heavy tune that accompanied the “Ganas” campaign slogan.

“If you’re on the right you should be on the right, if you’re on the left you should be on the left,” said María, a pensioner who came to see the Madrid president speak. “You can’t be soft. I’m not voting for the PP, I’m voting for Ayuso.”