The EU at 30: Looking forward and back

Dermot Hodson is author of “Circle of Stars: A History of the EU and the People Who Made It,” published by Yale University Press.

The European Union turns 30 today.

The Maastricht Treaty, which entered into force on November 1, 1993, envisioned nothing less than “a new stage in the process of European integration,” which would help end “the division of the European continent.” For all its faults, the EU has honored these aspirations, admitting 16 new members over the last three decades and fostering a spirit of cooperation that no other international organization has matched.

But for all its achievements, the EU still struggles to defend the ideals of unity, solidarity and harmony symbolized by the circle of stars on its flag.

Today, the mood in Brussels is somber, just as it was in 1993, when the EU was established on the edifice of the older European Community. Then, as now, the bloc faced sluggish economic growth, a political agenda partly shaped by right-wing populists, and bloody wars on its borders. Despite these parallels, however, the EU’s transformative impact on Europe over the last three decades shouldn’t be forgotten.

When the EU was founded, its three signature projects were in serious trouble: Plans for economic and monetary union had been thrown into chaos by the Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis, which showed just how difficult it was to tie national currencies together in the age of globalization. The Common Foreign and Security Policy had proved impotent in the face of war and ethnic violence in the former Yugoslavia. And the prospect of closer cooperation on justice and home affairs was greatly complicated by a dramatic increase in the number of refugees arriving in Western Europe after the Cold War.

When asked to comment on the EU’s first day, one European official replied: “No one is in the mood for this kind of thing. We have urgent problems to tackle.”

But over the years, all three of these projects were ultimately realized — albeit with varying degrees of success. Twenty member countries have now adopted the euro, which serves as a powerful catalyst for trade integration. And although a sovereign debt crisis weighed heavily on its second decade, the euro not only survived but is now the world’s most important currency after the dollar.

The Common Foreign and Security policy still moves too slowly — as seen by the EU’s stuttering response to the Israel-Hamas war — however, the €5.6 billion in military aid provided to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility shows that lessons have been learned from the Yugoslav Wars. Meanwhile, EU cooperation on justice and home affairs faced its most significant challenge in 2015, when over a million people claimed asylum in the bloc. But the Schengen Area endured, and with it, so did passport-free travel for more than 400 million Europeans.

Out of all its projects, arguably the EU’s biggest achievement to date has been enlargement. The promise of a seat at the table served as a powerful catalyst for reform in Central and Eastern Europe, which has become an exemplar for economic development. Poland, for example, the region’s star economy, has increased its GDP per capita almost three-fold since joining the EU. In fact, so successful was enlargement, that the bloc has found it difficult to drive change in its neighborhood without the promise of membership. Of course, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU was a blow for European integration, but even still, 10 countries are current or potential candidates for EU membership.

Despite its accomplishments, though, over the last three decades, the EU has too often fallen short of the Maastricht Treaty’s commitment to fundamental rights. From the draconian budget cuts required of Greece and other countries during the euro crisis to the harsh conditions endured by refugees in makeshift camps from Calais to Moria, the bloc has shown insufficient solidarity toward those affected by global crises.

And yet, the speed with which the EU mobilized €800 billion in grants and loans for member countries during COVID-19, and the temporary protection offered to more than 4 million Ukrainians after Russia’s invasion in 2022, showed that a different Europe is, indeed, possible.

Birthdays are a time for reflection, for looking forward as well as back. And this one brings three big issues for the EU to ponder.

First, the bloc must decide whether it’s serious about another “big bang” enlargement. The European Council is expected to open membership negotiations with Ukraine later this year, but there’s every chance that this country will then join Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey on the road to nowhere.

It’s also more important than ever that the EU defends its fundamental values. Even if the populist Law and Justice party has lost power in Poland, other right-wing populists such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán continue to defy the rule of law.

Finally, while growing increasingly distrustful of America’s polarized politics, the EU remains dependent on the transatlantic alliance for its own security. Donald Trump’s four years as United States president were damaging for the EU. A second term could be disastrous.

So, today, when  blowing out its birthday candles, the EU should wish for the stamina it will surely need for the years to come.