5 tripwires ahead for Scotland’s Humza Yousaf

LONDON — For Scotland’s embattled first minister, this might be as good as it gets.

Humza Yousaf has spent much his first few months as leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party dealing with the fallout from the dramatic arrest of his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon and other senior SNP figures.

And the ongoing police probe into the SNP’s finances is not all Yousaf has on his plate when Scottish politics returns from its parliamentary recess in September.

POLITICO mapped the five tripwires lying in wait for Yousaf as he tries to turn around the SNP’s fortunes.

1. A tricky by-election

Yousaf is braced for his first real electoral test since he became SNP leader in March when voters cast their verdict in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.

The race has been a long time coming. As coronavirus raged across the U.K in 2020, then-SNP MP Margaret Ferrier took a train trip from the Westminster parliament in London to her home in Glasgow — despite learning she had tested positive for the virus.

She was swiftly kicked out of the SNP and sentenced to 270 hours of community service — but her lapse of judgment could now have real consequences for Yousaf.

Ferrier’s constituents voted Tuesday to oust her as an MP, triggering a by-election in her seat. The contest is likely to take place towards the end of October.

Ferrier and the SNP won the seat from Scottish Labour in 2019, grabbing a decent majority of 5,230 as Labour’s vote share collapsed across Scotland.

Now Labour — who were once dominant in Scotland before the SNP’s rise — are on the comeback trail in the opinion polls.

In a sign of confidence, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and his U.K. boss Keir Starmer have campaigned in the constituency on multiple occasions with candidate Michael Shanks — while the SNP struggled to select a candidate at all, before picking local councillor Katy Loudon.

If the Scottish Labour surge is real, this is where it’ll show up. And a loss would provide a fresh reason for SNP worry as Yousaf readies for a likely Westminster general election in 2024.

2. A widening police probe

The arrests of SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, party treasurer Colin Beattie and then eventually Sturgeon sent shockwaves through the SNP and Scotland. All three were released without charge pending further investigation by Police Scotland.

The police investigation — concerning the party’s finances — has been ongoing since 2021 and comes after activists complained about the alleged use of a fund that had been ring-fenced for fighting a future referendum on Scottish independence.

Amid much speculation, outgoing Police Scotland chief Iain Livingstone confirmed in July the investigation has expanded beyond its initial remit and is now looking into “potential embezzlement.”

In the meantime, the inquiry casts a large shadow over Yousaf’s own tenure. The first minister is asked about the investigation almost every time he talks to the media.

3. Gender wars, Round 2

The last big policy row of Sturgeon’s regime saw her devolved Scottish government pass reforms that would make it easier for people in Scotland to legally change gender.

Though the changes were passed on a cross-party basis, they faced significant opposition from a small band of rebel lawmakers in Sturgeon’s own party.

Crucially, the plans were then blocked by the U.K. government — which argued they were incompatible with wider British law.

The SNP reacted with outrage. Yousaf’s government announced in April that it would challenge the decision in the courts.

Arguments from both sides will be heard at Edinburgh’s Court of Session next month, in a three-day hearing from September 19 to September 21. Increased prominence of the issue may be unhelpful for the SNP, given its highly charged splits on gender reform.

Defeat in the courts could also carry a high price for Yousaf.

Both of his opponents in spring’s acrimonious SNP leadership contest said they would not have taken the legal action in the first place — meaning the first minister could be personally blamed by his internal opponents if court battle doesn’t go his way. Speaking of which…

4. Internal discontent

“The atmosphere in Holyrood [Scotland’s parliament] is not particularly happy now within the SNP group, I’m afraid to say,” the veteran SNP MSP — and newfound rebel — Fergus Ewing told the Holyrood Sources podcast earlier this month.

Ewing is one of a growing number of SNP figures openly voicing their discontent with the party’s direction of travel.

Once famed for its internal discipline, a lack of progress toward the SNP’s end-goal of Scottish independence under Sturgeon saw SNP splits increasingly come to the fore.

Some senior lawmakers, including Ewing, also rebelled over Sturgeon’s gender reforms — and have criticized the SNP’s quasi-coalition agreement with the left-wing Scottish Greens.

Yousaf ran his leadership campaign as a continuity candidate promising to continue the work of Sturgeon, who remained popular with SNP voters. His contenders, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan, both promised change.

In the end Yousaf won narrowly, defeating Forbes by 52 to 48 percent. Hopes that Yousaf would bring Forbes into the tent were shattered when she rejected his offer of a government job that would have represented a demotion from her finance minister position.

Though she has been a generally constructive presence on the backbenches, some of Forbes’ own supporters — including the likes of Ewing — have continued to be critical of the direction of the Scottish government. Forbes waits in the wings as a potential future leadership contender.

5. SNP reforms

A month before he was arrested by Police Scotland in connection with the finances probe, Peter Murrell was forced out of his role as SNP chief executive amid a transparency row.

Murrell, who is also Sturgeon’s husband, quit the job after he admitted misleading the SNP press team, who in turn misled journalists, about the number of members who had left the SNP. Yousaf is still trying to recruit a replacement for Murrell to that key position.

The transparency — or lack thereof — of the SNP’s internal workings under Sturgeon and Murrell’s leadership was a key complaint made by activists. Those complaints only got louder as the police probe into the party’s financial dealings continued.

In an effort to make a clean break, Yousaf announced that the party would reform its governance and transparency processes.

Those reforms will be debated and voted on at the SNP’s annual conference in October — Yousaf’s first as leader.

While he will see the conference as a chance to rally the troops and pledge positive change, it also offers an opportunity for unhappy members to voice their discontent to senior figures.

With the membership having already declined by more than a third since 2021, Yousaf and the SNP can little afford any more unhappy members.