Tories take kicking in 2 UK by-elections — but hold on in Boris Johnson’s old seat

LONDON — Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives suffered hefty defeats in two parliamentary by-elections — but the U.K. prime minister can breath a sigh of relief after clinging on to Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Conservatives woke up Friday having seen healthy majorities wiped out in the previously-safe constituencies of Selby and Ainsty, where they ceded a House of Commons seat to Labour, and in Somerton and Frome, where they took a kicking from the Liberal Democrats.

But the Conservatives, who are languishing in the national polls and had been braced for a clean sweep of defeats, were given something to cheer in the outer London seat of Uxbridge, Johnson’s former turf, where Labour failed to make a gain.

In Selby — where a by-election was triggered by the sudden resignation of Johnson’s ally Nigel Adams — Labour overturned a 20,137 Tory majority with a 23.7 percent swing to Starmer’s party. It’s the largest Conservative majority Labour has overturned in a by-election since 1945.

An even bigger swing in Somerton and Frome saw the Liberal Democrats snatch the rural seat, in only the latest by-election loss for the Tories in one of their so-called blue wall heartlands.

But local anger over the planned expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone under the city’s Labour mayor helped Sunak’s Tories hold on to Uxbridge by just 495 votes, despite an increase in the Labour vote.

It’s a disappointment for Labour leader Keir Starmer whose party had made bold claims and fought a long campaign, but fell short of taking Johnson’s old seat.

‘Deep electoral trouble’

Pollster John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde said the by-election results on the whole looked grim for the Conservatives.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today program Friday morning: “Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us.”

Across the three seats contested, the Conservative vote was down 21 percentage points, he said, a figure in line with national polling.

But Curtice said Labour must also ask why its hold on the electorate is “apparently so weak” that when a local issue like the emissions row in Uxbridge erupts the party doesn’t “perform as they should.”

James Johnson of polling firm J.L. Partners told POLITICO’s London Playbook: “For the Tories these were stormy by-elections — but with the most thin of silver linings.

“What we knew before still applies: if Rishi can deliver results and navigate the narrowest of paths, the election is in play. If he doesn’t, Labour win.”