Vestager’s economist mishap complicates her bid for the EIB

France’s opposition to Margrethe Vestager’s pick of an American citizen as chief competition economist could harm her chances of getting the next job she’s eyeing.

Vestager, who is the European Commission executive vice president, is Denmark’s nominee to lead the European Investment Bank when Werner Hoyer’s mandate ends this year. She had been considered the front-runner.

But after Paris successfully led the charge against the appointment of Fiona Scott Morton to the role at DG COMP, the Commission’s department in charge of antitrust enforcement, Vestager is now uncertain to get French support for the EIB.

Vestager’s bid is not dead in the water, several French officials said, but many factors will be taken into consideration. One of them is how much a Vestager-led EIB would consider French interests, including a request by President Emmanuel Macron for the body to fund nuclear energy, and a push for it to invest more in defense.

Another factor is who Vestager is up against. Other contenders for the EIB role include Daniele Franco, a former Italian finance minister, and Teresa Czerwińska, EIB vice president for Poland. Spanish Finance Minister Nadia Calviño has indicated Madrid will suggest a name “in due course.”

With Spain heading to the polls on Sunday, and the Socialist-led government’s chances of staying in power looking poor, it’s unclear if and when Madrid will be able to nominate someone.

Even if the Socialists manage to stay in power, whether Calviño would run for the job herself — something that she’s never explicitly excluded — or would prefer other options, such as to become Spain’s next EU commissioner, remains to be seen. 

If Calviño did go for the EIB, she would need to gather support in Paris, Berlin, and Rome. For that, Italy would need to withdraw Franco’s bid, but it’s unclear why it would do so ― or what it would ask for in return.

“France is waiting to see a field of potential candidates” after the Spanish election to decide whom to back, said a senior French government source, who was granted anonymity.

Either way, Vestager’s bid hangs on the Spanish election at least as much as on her own qualifications and powers of persuasion.

The goal is to agree on a name by consensus at an informal gathering of finance ministers in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, in mid-September.

Clea Caulcutt and Nicholas Vinocur contributed reporting.